Tuesday (April 18th) the dollar index rebounded slightly, currently trading at around 100.37, slightly away from the overnight hit two week low of 100 integer mark, at U.S. Treasury Secretary Nouchine proposed contrary to Trump's view, that a strong dollar is a good thing for $rebound provides opportunity, but the comprehensive factors of view there are still risks, the dollar index dropping again 100 integer mark.
"Innuendo" Trump, US Treasury Secretary Trump nominated short-sighted, fed vice chairman of supervision.
According to the remittance network observation, US Treasury Secretary Nuqin Monday (April 17th) said in an interview with the "Financial Times", a strong dollar over the long term is a good thing, President Trump is consistent with the fact that the dollar in the short term performance reviews, because this could hurt exports, but in the long term, as the main international reserve currency dollar strong is a good thing, this shows that the U.S. economy is strong and the people have confidence in the economy.
Nuqin also said that there may be a way in the implementation of border tax adjustment situation, to raise 1 trillion dollars; reform package blocked to form some obstacles on promoting tax reform, still intends to tax reform in 2017.
In Nuqin speech, the dollar index further away from the two week low, and gradually rise to around 100.35. The former Trump health care reform bill blocked after the market had expressed concern about Trump during the year to implement the tax reform, U.S. stocks from historical highs, but Nuqin on tax point of view, to enhance the confidence of the market, but also help the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up on Monday, ending a three-day losing streak.
Note: U.S. President Trump said last week in an interview with the Wall Street journal that the dollar is becoming too strong and not conducive to the international competitiveness of the United states. Tend to low interest rate policy, he likes and respect Yellen, has not yet decided whether to continue the nomination of president of the Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen.
The Nuqin speak a little hint of Trump on the dollar's strength of speech belongs to "suicide", but it remains to be seen. If Trump is committed to a weaker dollar, then the dollar still has a greater downside risk. From the point of view of the market reaction, Trump's remarks also influence to a large number of Binuqin.
CNN analyst IvanaKottasova pointed out that some people think that Trump on the dollar's influence may be more limited; but it is a reminder that Trump in the next two years, candidates can complement the most fed officials. And Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve will also expire in February 3, 2018, vice chairman of the board of directors in will also be in office expires in June 12, 2018. If Mr Trump wants the dollar to weaken, he can use fiscal policy and nominate Federal Reserve officials to do so.
According to informed sources said on Monday, Trump will nominate former U.S. Treasury Secretary (RandalQuarles) served as the Fed's full-time vice chairman of regulatory affairs, the position has been vacant for 7 years.
French agricultural credit bank's foreign exchange strategist VassiliSerebriakov also pointed out that the majority of European financial markets on Monday due to the Easter holiday closed, all day trading light. The market has not yet fully digested the weak U.S. economic data released on Friday (April 14th). The market is likely to have a bigger reaction after Tuesday's resumption of trading in Europe, so it does not feel that the rally could continue on Monday.
To learn. The dollar index generally fell in April, the downside risk is still.
The dollar index is generally poor performance in April, in the past ten years, eight years in April, the dollar index has recorded a decline, parity fell about 1.15%, and in 2017 April the dollar index for the current month line decline is only 0.06%, if the data from this measure, the dollar index is expected in April will be closed down in the vicinity of 99.13.
In addition, the table also shows that in the past ten years, the dollar index is lowest in April or 0.78%, if the data from this measure, the dollar index is expected in April will be closed down in the vicinity of 99.50; in the past ten years, the dollar index in April the largest decline of 3.85%, if from this data to measure it, the dollar index is expected in April will be closed down in the vicinity of 96.42.
Some technical analysis: more negative, pay attention to the 100 mark integer support.
From the hourly chart, the dollar index since the downward trend line since 10 April is still relatively intact, at the firm before Bollinger rail 100.39, the dollar index is still biased downward, the current Bollinger rail support near 100.13. Bollinger rail resistance near 100.66.
From the daily view, the dollar index last week on average 100 days after being blocked, and the relatively weak performance of the 5 day moving average has been wearing a 10 day moving average Sicha form, MACD red energy column also weakened, and there are signs below the zero axis formed Sicha, also on the dollar, recommended to continue to focus on near the 100 mark integer support, further support at the March 22nd lows near 99.54, 200 day moving average support near 99.04; above the 10 day moving average on the resistance near 100.60, if effectively broke the position, will ease the downside risks to the dollar.
In general, whether it is from the news, data, historical situation, or from a technical perspective, the dollar index is still a big downside risk, investors need to guard against the dollar fell below the 100 mark.
To remind: focus on the American real estate transaction data and industrial output rate
09:30 RBA announces April monetary policy meeting minutes;
The total number of new housing starts in the United States in March, the total number of construction permits in the United States in March (20:30);
21:15 U.S. March industrial output rate;
The next day 04.
Monday (April 17th), although it is Easter the next day, the multinational stock market / Europe and the United States and China's crude oil and precious metals CME foreign exchange are closed, but the spot is still open trading of gold and silver. Sunday (April 16th) Turkey referendum on constitutional amendment. Beijing time on Monday (April 17th) morning news shows that 99.95% of the votes have been counted, support the presidential system of constitutional faction thriller win! Gold opened higher, as of press time, the highest hit five month high of $1295.42 / oz. Before the referendum, the country's president called for gold. This week is the single moth multiple weeks, the small target of gold is not only the 1300 mark!
Turkey, constitutional referendum results support a presidential system, gold hit a five month high,
Beijing time on Monday (April 17th) morning news shows, according to the preliminary results of the vote, the president has won more than 20% of the advantages of the final system to get through the weak. After the news came out, Turkey lira on Monday (0417) opened up, the U.S. dollar against the Turkey lira plunged this morning to close to 3.6340 in the vicinity of 2%. Gold Asia opened higher, hitting a five month high. So there have been foreign media reports, the president had called for a referendum before buying gold, a large number of local investors to buy gold hedge currency risk.
According to the remittance network observation, since November 2016 Turkey lira was the biggest decline since the 2008 financial crisis, Turkey's president El Erdogan were called upon to sell dollars and buy lira or gold to support the local currency, imports of gold in Turkey has been on the rise.
Gold expert MehmetAliYildirimturk Istanbul's Grand Bazaar, people began to choose gold, rather than other foreign currency, the lira also makes a modest recovery in the price of gold rose again. (Note: Istanbul's Grand Bazaar, is one of the world's largest indoor market. )
According to the observation of FX678, according to the Istanbul stock exchange, precious metals and metals market data, after President El called for Erdogan to buy gold, Turkey December 2016 gold imports reached 37.8 tons, an increase of nearly 8 times, is also the largest monthly imports over the past two years the country's gold.
Turkey's 24 carat gold price rose from January's $132 (about $36) to $153 in February, on Tuesday, April 4th, at around $148.
To the French election unitary moths to disrupt the market, is expected to get the gold bull God assists you.
The first round of elections will be held in France in April 23rd. The general election in France has been a problem with the peninsula, becoming the biggest nuclear bomb this week". The outcome of the election, it is bound to fluctuate throughout the financial markets, and even the outside world is seen as the beginning of the change in the pattern of the European Union, gold bulls are expected to get God assists".
From many institutions polling data, the French election is still a mystery, the four candidates polling data was a stalemate, still did not show a clear signal, it will undoubtedly increase the investment market uncertainty, which triggered risk aversion.
Some 45 million 700 thousand of French voters, according to a Reuters poll, are likely to give up their votes, which has never been seen in France, where the turnout has been high in the past 1/3 years. Even those who intend to vote, about 1/3 of the people have not decided who to vote.
Despite polls showing a far right party candidate Bon will defeat the Independence Party candidate Ma Kehong in the second round of the presidential election held on May 7th. But whether it is the United Kingdom from Europe, or the U.S. presidential election, the market has suffered a loss of poll data. Thus the market for the relevant agencies to provide the poll data, there are doubts.
Goldman Sachs MarketStratsgroup global head of BobbyVedral in the report that the market ignored the possibility of Bon victory.
HidekiKishida, a senior strategist at Nomura Securities, said: "they are worried that there will be third accidents after last year's British referendum and the u.s.." Therefore, the nerves of the market are in a state of extreme tension. Multi market is ahead of entry into the hedging model.
To geopolitical crisis is not scattered, small target is not only the gold bulls 1300! *
April 13th the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR positions over the previous trading day increased by 6.51 tons, the largest increase in a month, to 848.92 tons, the highest level for the past four months.
German commercial bank market analyst EugenWeinberg said, gold near overbought levels, however, the long term is still bullish on gold. CIBCWorldMarkets senior economist NickExarhos said lingering uncertainty will be good gold, I think gold is expected to hit $1300 / oz.
From a technical point of view, many analysts said the key concern level of gold for the 200 day moving average, as long as the price of gold remained above this level, the rally will continue to build momentum.
According to foreign media reports, due to the crisis did not spread on the peninsula, the increase in the purchase of small gold bars, the average daily sales soared 300%. Investors generally believe that gold is the most ideal financial products. According to the South Korean Gold Exchange on April 16th news, before 10-100 grams of small gold bullion daily sales of about 100, while in the Korean Peninsula in the crisis in April, after the spread of speech, sales surged to about 400, an increase of 300%.
In general, the largest sales of 1 kg of gold bars. But analysts believe that 1 kg of gold bullion prices up to 54 million won (about RMB 325 thousand and 500 yuan), and in the case of war and other emergencies should not carry, so the recent increase in the purchase of small gold bullion investors. According to the price of the South Korean gold exchange, 10 grams of gold bullion price of more than 550 thousand won, a gain of 100 grams of 5 million 400 thousand won.
To the South Korean gold exchange trading volume of 14.