Analysts at HSBC on Monday announced the outlook for the currency in September. They point out that some central Banks have implemented initial austerity measures as the normalization process begins with ultra-loose policy.
The euro and the dollar have been a litmus test for tighter policy, as markets expect the two central Banks to cut back on easing, raising interest rates and raising the two currencies.
HSBC points out that if our analysis is correct, then we need to identify central Banks that have not yet changed policy.
We think the Australian dollar, the new dollar, the Swedish krone and the Norwegian krone will begin to become the next, as the signs of these central Banks tightening are becoming increasingly apparent.
As a result, we revised our previous expectations that these currencies would rise, as shown in the table below:
G10 foreign exchange expectations adjustmentG10 foreign exchange expectations adjustment
In addition, especially against the euro, we think the euro rally is basically complete. The price adjustment may have been completed when the ECB actually withdrew. We expect the euro/dollar to fluctuate near 1.20 next year.
Euro/dollar at 11:39 am on September 11, 2013.
Analysts at Credit Agricole wrote on Tuesday (August 15) about the performance of euro/dollar. The details are as follows:
The bank's foreign exchange strategy research team expects the euro/dollar to face downside risks in the short term, as long positions remain high and investors anticipate the ECB's monetary policy.
The Jackson hole annual meeting at the end of this month and the European central bank in September are key.
In terms of data, the final revision of the CPI in July is hardly a driving factor for the market. When it comes to the minutes of the ECB meeting, all eyes will be on whether there are signs that some members are showing more concern about the still-sluggish core price growth.
While all of this suggests that the euro's short-term risks are biased towards the downside, we believe that the long-term outlook for the euro is still positive, which means we can buy at a low price.
At 07:42 Beijing time, euro/dollar was at 1.1773/74.
On Wednesday (August 2) northern European Union Bank (nordbanken Bank) of foreign exchange strategy research, points out that Britain's "super Thursday" is coming, as the Bank of England (indicate) meeting in August inflation report will be released.
It said it was too early to expect the bank of England to raise interest rates, but there could be a "hawkish jump". Inflation in the UK is already above target, but that may not be enough to guarantee a rise in interest rates, as recent PMI data in the UK have lost momentum.
But the bank pointed out that the bank of England this meeting bet on the outlook for inflation stronger argument seems reasonable, because the British inflation in the bank of England may forecast interval near the rail on the slightly higher, although the unexpected negative performance in June.
The bank expects the euro/pound to not break through 0.90, and risks and returns tend to fall on "super Thursday".